Pre-election polls indicated that inflation and other pocketbook issues were the most important issue to voters, and far-right leaders ran with election denialism narratives leading up to election day. However, Pendulum’s data shows that reproductive rights was a primary focus for Americans leading up to the election and continues to be top-of-mind in the unsettled elections.

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To provide increased understanding of the factors that led to 2022’s anomalous election results–midterm races typically return some power to the opposition party–Pendulum evaluated three important races: Arizona’s gubernatorial race and the senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania.

• Election denialism was a key issue in only one of the three elections we reviewed: the Arizona gubernatorial race, a positive harbinger of the 2024 presidential election. Kari Lake was one of 32 Republicans out of 46 who lost at the state level running on a platform that President Joseph Biden stole the 2020 presidential election, according to States United Action, a nonpartisan organization focused on safeguarding democracy.
• In the three races we highlighted, inflation was part of each candidate’s platform but was not discernibly more significant than the threat to abortion or democracy.